President Donald Trump is currently standing at a very complex crossroads in the ongoing conflict with Iran. He is not able to declare victory honestly in front of the world. It seems that he is losing control of this spreading war. If America withdraws from this war now, its strategic and economic consequences could be even more dangerous than stopping. Although Trump is not yet trapped in a situation like Vietnam or Iraq, signs of danger are visible all around.

The biggest challenge in this war that has been going on for almost two weeks is the blockade of the ‘Strait of Hormuz’. Iran has closed this important route for oil export. Even America’s tremendous military power is not able to solve this issue. Experts believe that unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened for international trade, America cannot claim its victory. Trump’s rhetoric of ‘scorched earth’ i.e. destroying everything is also not working here.

Strategists say that it is almost impossible to open the Strait of Hormuz through military force. Iran has very cheap but deadly drones and anti-ship missiles. Through these, he is blocking the world’s fifth largest oil supply. The US Navy is hesitant to enter this narrow passage because of the risk of these weapons. Even if America starts a security mission there, it will have to provide escort for every ship. This is a big challenge for tired western navies.

At the beginning of the war, America and Israel had eliminated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump thought that this would lead to the overthrow of the regime. But Iran immediately declared his son Mojtaba the new supreme leader. Due to this, Trump’s narrative of ‘regime change’ i.e. change of power has weakened. Democrats say that the new leader is even more radical and strict than his father. That is, despite achieving military success, America did not get the political change it had expected.

Trump wants to end this war by declaring victory as soon as possible. But Israel’s view is different. Iran’s threat to Israel is geographical and existential. Recently Israel bombed Iran’s oil infrastructure, which was not included in America’s plan. This has raised questions about whether a foreign nation is influencing the decisions of the American Commander-in-Chief? Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be in favor of prolonging this war.

Trump claims that he has destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities. But the reality is that Iran may still have reserves of enriched uranium. According to the United Nations Nuclear Agency, about 200 kg of uranium is still present in the Isfahan plant. Unless Washington completely destroys this stockpile, it cannot be confident about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. To take it out, a major ground operation will be required, which is very risky.

When Trump started the war, he told the Iranians that the time for their freedom had come. He had appealed to the people to revolt. But till now no such major rebellion has been seen on the streets of Iran. On the contrary, experts are warning that once the bombing stops, the Iranian regime will crush its opponents even more brutally. If Iran’s regional influence does not reduce, Trump’s talk of ‘independence’ will remain just empty words.

The rising oil prices in America have increased Trump’s problems. The general public does not care which missiles were destroyed in Iran. They are concerned about rising prices at gas stations. As the bodies of American soldiers return home and the House budget deteriorates, public support will diminish. Trump is advertising victory like a salesman, but in reality he is fighting an enemy who is not ready to accept defeat and bow down.